Thursday, September 6, 2012

NFL Week 1 picks: Packers' defense will control Niners; Peyton will prevail

It's Week 1 in the NFL. Every team is in the playoff chase, every team can dream as big as the Super Bowl. But we know that every year that pool is really made up of the select, most talented teams.

The San Francisco 49ers (six), Green Bay Packers (four), Pittsburgh Steelers (six) and Denver Broncos (two) have combined to win 18 of the 46 Super Bowls that have been played. They are all in the hunt to expand their franchise's Lombardi Trophy case in 2012. Their intraconference matchups to start the season Sunday will give us a hint of how tall four teams might finish the season.

The 2012 season opens Wednesday with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the New York Giants. Track the game here.

Week 1's picks (all times ET):

NFC Game of the Week

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX). This is the game we thought we would see in last year's NFC championship game, but it just might be a preview of this year's NFC championship game. First, what we know. The 49ers have an exceptional 3-4 defense. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have an inexhaustible quiver in the passing game.

There will be times where San Francisco wins with a big sack or a turnover. Other times, it will be Rodgers hitting on a big strike after Green Bay creates personnel mismatches. In the end, though, it's the 49ers offense versus the Packers defense that will determine this game.

The Packers must be stout early against the run and contain tight end Vernon Davis so they can get creative sending pass rushers at Alex Smith from different angles.

As for the 49ers, it's hard to read just how much they want Smith to open up the offense. The choice to start Randy Moss is a sign they want to test the Packers defense at every level. It's just that the Packers' top defensive players, including Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, are easier to trust flying upfield than an aging Moss getting downfield.

Smith and Rodgers will always be connected by the 2005 NFL Draft, and the Niners hope this is the year their No. 1 overall pick will join Rodgers in getting a ring. This will be a setback for the 49ers, and it will be interesting to see how much San Francisco's offense improves for much, much later. Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 24.

AFC Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 8:20 pm., NBC). The Steelers' Mile High journey will be different than their previous trip?a stunning overtime loss to Tim Tebow's Broncos in the wild-card playoff round. Now they are presented with the challenge of Peyton Manning, with Denver retaining its other strengths?running game, offensive line, skilled young receivers and linebackers. Manning must be ready out of the gate to handle everything Dick LeBeau's defense throws at him.

The Broncos have better offensive health and balance than the Steelers entering this game, and that will allow Manning to start his new career chapter 1-0.

The Steelers have an injury-hampered offensive line and backfield, are breaking in Todd Haley?s passing offense and are trying to get late arrival Mike Wallace up to speed. That's not the best formula for Ben Roethlisberger, who has to face pass rushers Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

Manning won't have the same burden of carrying his team in the opener. Good running from Willis McGahee will set up Manning to spread the ball well to Eric Decker and his other new targets. There might be another long completion to Demaryius Thomas, but Denver can get it done again with Manning's mind and accuracy over Tebow's magic. Prediction: Broncos 23, Steelers 19

Debut of the Week

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). Robert Griffin III will make his rookie splash on the fast track of the Superdome, and the Redskins will need him at full speed to keep up with the Saints. Sean Payton won?t be on the Saints sideline, but Drew Brees and a balanced, prolific offense will cause plenty of problems for Redskins defensive coaches. The secondary is the big concern for the Redskins, and Brees will exploit it often with Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore in the middle of the field. Prediction: Saints 38, Redskins 20

Upset of the Week

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). There's great anticipation about how the Jets plan to unleash Tebow, but the Bills quietly became the better team in the offseason. They are now going with a four-man defensive front, and with end Mario Williams and tackle Marcell Dareus as the headliners, it's one of the league's best. They also think they have a shutdown corner in rookie first-rounder Stephon Gilmore. Throw in safeties George Wilson and Jairus Byrd, and there are a lot of obstacles for a sputtering, conservative Jets attack.

On the other side of the ball, the key for the Bills is having running back Fred Jackson back in action after he missed the final six games last season with a broken leg. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson aside, Jackson's versatility as a rusher and receiver is the lifeblood of the offense. Look for him to be the difference-maker in a mild surprise. Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 20

Lock of the Week

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). Dolphins first-round quarterback Ryan Tannehill will go through his first real "Hard Knocks" while facing Wade Phillips' 3-4 pressure defense. Jake Long can't keep both Connor Barwin and Brooks Reed away from the pocket, and Miami doesn't have the receivers to make Houston sweat. We'll see Arian Foster play the role of closer as the Texans run away in the second half. Prediction: Texans 41, Dolphins 13

Rest of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). We'll see the Falcons let loose their new-look passing game, including a few long connections between Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. Look for Ryan to get Tony Gonzalez a TD in his K.C. homecoming. Atlanta's defense will slow the run early and get to Matt Cassel later when he's in catchup mode. Prediction: Falcons 24, Chiefs 17

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). Even though linebacker Brian Urlacher won't be the same because of his knee injury, the Bears defense still has the horses?see Julius Peppers?to cause a rocky road start for first overall pick Andrew Luck. Luck's QB counterpart, Jay Cutler, will make use of his new weapons against an Indy D in transition, with Brandon Marshall, Michael Bush and rookie Alshon Jeffery all delivering in the red zone. Prediction: Bears 30, Colts 13

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). It was supposed to be Maurice Jones-Drew versus Adrian Peterson full bore, but separate circumstances now makes this more of a duel between second-year quarterbacks. Go with Christian Ponder at home over Blaine Gabbert, as Percy Harvin and rising tight end Kyle Rudolph will make the difference over the middle against the Jags defense. Prediction: Vikings 20, Jaguars 14

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS). The Titans handed the quarterback keys to Jake Locker, and with the backfield threat of Chris Johnson as support, Locker will use his legs and connect with rookie Kendall Wright to make this game intriguing for a while. But Tom Brady and the Patriots' diverse passing attack will go into overdrive in the third quarter and put Bill Belichick?s pass rush in better position to thwart Locker in the fourth quarter. Prediction: Patriots 34, Titans 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). The Eagles defense will be on high upset alert with the Browns rolling out promising rookies Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden. Offensively, Philadelphia will look for Michael Vick to hit on a big pass play (or run) to jump ahead, and then turn the game over to LeSean McCoy. Just like Long can?t do it all for Tannehill, Joe Thomas can't slow down every Eagles edge pass rusher for Weeden. Prediction: Eagles 23, Browns 13

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX). Jeff Fisher returns to the sideline against his former Titans defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz. Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Lions' passing game present a big problem for former Titans cornerback Cortland Finnegan and the Rams' new-look defense. Sam Bradford, taken No. 1 overall in 2010 (a year after Stafford), has much work to do to reach Stafford's level. Facing Ndamukong Suh?the No. 2 overall pick in 2010?won't help matters in Week 1. Prediction: Lions 33, Rams 13

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX). The Cam Newton Experience enters Year 2, and the highlight reel will start off well with his passing and running against the Bucs' defensive back seven. Tampa's new-found discipline under Greg Schiano will help the hosts stay in the game, as will contributions from offensive newcomers Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. While Newton takes care of Carolina's offense, this year's first-rounder, linebacker Luke Kuechly, will start his defensive rookie of the year campaign with impact plays. Prediction: Panthers 27, Bucs 24

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX). The only thing matching the hype around rookie quarterback Russell Wilson in Seattle is the disappointment over Kevin Kolb not being able to win the job in Arizona. John Skelton will face a Seahawks secondary hungry for takeaways, and Wilson could use a healthy Marshawn Lynch to relieve pressure against the Cardinals' front on the road. This might be a game where all the scoring comes off turnovers. Prediction: Seahawks 17, Cardinals 14

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Monday, 7 p.m., ESPN). The Ravens secondary, which yielded big receiving games in the preseason, will focus on slowing Bengals second-year speedster A.J. Green. That will be an easier task if Baltimore doesn't need an extra defender to shut down BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the running game. The Ravens might want to stretch the field with Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith, but in what figures to be another gritty AFC North defensive struggle, Ray Rice will be just right. Prediction: Ravens 20, Bengals 13

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (Monday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN). The Chargers' Philip Rivers will be quickly trying to shake off his interception-riddled 2011. He'll be in better position to do that than the Raiders' Carson Palmer. Injuries affect both offenses, but San Diego is less impacted in the passing game. Rivers will be happy to have Antonio Gates back to burn Oakland while Palmer is more likely to make a crucial mistake. Prediction: Chargers 24, Raiders 17

Source: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2012-09-05/nfl-week-1-picks-manning-rodgers-roethlisberger-green-bay-packers-san-francisco-

joe torre west virginia university michele bachmann jessica biel tim howard west virginia rob roy

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